Welcome back to the Ethical Reckoner. First, a little exciting news: we’ve hit 100 subscribers! Thank you to everyone who has shared the ER with friends, family, and colleagues. When I first started this newsletter, I honestly didn’t think the audience would grow much beyond my immediate circle, so I’m thrilled that a wider audience has found it useful. Please keep sharing and helping us grow!
After talking about vaccine passports (or as I still prefer, “digital vaccine certifications,” but I accept that this is a losing battle) in ER5 a few weeks ago, chatter about them seems to be everywhere. Let’s take a quick look at where vaccine passports are and where they may be headed. So far, there seem to be three main purposes to vaccine passports: allowing international travel, opening domestic privileges, and increasing a state’s geopolitical power.
Perhaps the least controversial proposed application of vaccine certifications is in international travel. Countries dependent on tourism, like Aruba, are clamouring to develop systems that could hasten bringing travellers—and thus needed revenue—back. The EU is aiming to have a certification system by June to facilitate crossing borders within the EU, though those unvaccinated would not be prohibited from travel. Like requiring yellow fever vaccinations for certain destinations, it makes sense that places will require COVID vaccination to protect their countries.
One potential issue, though, is that governments will work to attract visitors at a cost to residents. Spain, for example, is prohibiting domestic travel, but permitting international tourism, creating complaints about economically-motivated double standards. And, the concern of vaccine passports opening up travel only to residents of wealthy countries that have been able to acquire vaccines is still very much relevant; I’ve talked at length abut how we need to address inequalities in global vaccine distribution. However, there are also questions about equality if countries try to re-open without vaccine passports. Some countries, like the UK, seem to be focusing on testing instead of vaccine passports. The UK is potentially allowing international travel again from May 17 based on a “traffic light” system, but while those coming from “green” countries won’t have to quarantine, they’ll have to test before and after travel, and one must be a PCR test. There is no exemption provided for the vaccinated, raising concerns that the cost will prevent lower-income vaccinated people from travelling. In the delicate balance between public health, fairness, and the economy, we need to make sure that underserved people aren’t unfairly left behind.
The “vaccine passports” that have been most prominent in the news recently are those meant to open up domestic privileges to vaccinated citizens. Countries seem to be taking two tacks: requiring passports for just big and/or crowded events, like concerts and sporting events, or requiring them for both big events and everyday doings, like going to the gym or eating at a restaurant. The latter is by far the more controversial.
Israel is taking the latter approach, with a “Green Pass” issued to vaccinated citizens required to enter bars, gyms, concerts, and sporting events. Since Israel has fully vaccinated 56% of its population, there have been fewer complaints of inequality than in countries where vaccine rollout is slower, though given that vaccines still aren’t approved for under-16s, action will need to be taken to make sure that this doesn’t become a long-term source of generational equality.
In the UK, where 11% of the population is fully vaccinated, the government had to walk back a proposal for vaccine certifications for restaurant and pub entrance after an enormous uproar. The plan to require showing a vaccine certificate at the door to the pub was attacked for being against the “British instinct.” As an American, I don’t quite know what that is, but I guess Boris should’ve known better than to get between a Brit and their local. The system is now just being considered for “mass gatherings and indoor events,” but the government is also piloting systems of mass testing. The UK is historically very opposed to national identification systems, especially those involving government databases, which may be the basis for some of these protests.
The US, on the other hand, is historically very opposed to agreeing on anything, which is why governors in Texas, Florida, and South Dakota (which all have Republican governors) are taking executive action to prohibit vaccine passports, while New York (with a Democratic governor) is full speed ahead on the “Excelsior Pass,” which allows you to present vaccination or time-limited testing results to enter an event or business. New York’s approach may be a promising way to help assuage some concerns over inequality for those who cannot get vaccinated. By allowing for short-term passes (3 days for a negative PCR test or 6 hours for a negative antigen test), those who cannot or aren’t yet able to get vaccinated will be able to access businesses and events—assuming tests are readily accessible and don’t themselves pose an unfair barrier. However, the massive fragmentation of adoption across the country raises enormous questions when it comes to interstate travel, and may ensure that COVID hotspots persist in states with low vaccine adoption.
The third, and least documented, purpose of vaccine passports is to enhance the geopolitical power of a state. The main actor in this field right now is China. The system in place right now allows for an expedited visa process if you can prove you’ve been vaccinated––with a Chinese-made vaccine, which is clearly an attempt to promote China’s image of national technological superiority. China is domestically using an official certification on WeChat, a messaging/social media app that virtually everyone in China has on their phone.* It doesn’t seem like it’s being used for business access, as cases in China are so low to begin with that restrictions aren’t necessary. China is also developing a health certification system for countries to recognise each other’s traveler’s health statuses and open up international travel again. It’s unclear if this is a separate initiative, but if this is linked to the WeChat certification, it could be an enormous coup for the country. Tencent, the company behind WeChat, is one of China’s biggest companies, but is primarily known in China. Using vaccine certifications as a foothold to get WeChat to be widely adopted elsewhere would be a huge step towards boosting the company’s profile—and revenue—and would be a big step towards promoting China’s homegrown companies and apps. Watch this space, but it seems likely that this is yet another play in China’s health diplomacy strategy to promote China as a source of stability and global health.**
So, in this whirlwind tour of the state of vaccine passports, we see a few themes emerging. First, that proving you’ve been vaccinated to travel isn’t hugely controversial; this is where vaccine certifications are more or less akin to existing travel vaccine requirements. Second, vaccine certification for domestic liberties is a hugely controversial issue. Some areas aren’t touching it, choosing instead to implement mass testing (like the UK) or apparently do nothing at all (like some parts of the US). Others, like Israel, are full steam ahead. The most promising approach seems to be that of New York, which allows for both time-limited testing and vaccination to get “Excelsior Passes.” Finally, China is taking advantage of this as part of its efforts in health diplomacy. With digital vaccine certification efforts hugely fragmented, a single, unified pass coming from China could be hugely powerful, and a way for them to promote their homegrown technology to the world.
* It has over 1.2 billion (yes, with a b) active monthly users; the vast majority of those are in China.
** Read more about their approach to vaccine diplomacy in ER6.
Prompt generated by DALL-E 2 with the prompt “An abstract interpretation of the concept of privilege and power, dreamy watercolor”.
Thanks for reading.
Emmie is an MSc student at the Oxford Internet Institute. Check out the archive of past Ethical Reckoner issues here. If you haven’t already, click the big “subscribe” button to get the Ethical Reckoner biweekly, and help the ER grow by spamming all your friends with the “share” button.
Any suggestions or comments? Let me know on Twitter @EmmieHine.
100 subscribers 👌 Proud of you dear Emmie.
100 subscribers 👌 Proud of you dear Emmie.